25th Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum – Nation State Risk and the Future Influence in Security From China, Russia And North Korea

Lord Toby Harris underscored the escalating uncertainty and volatility of the global landscape, characterized by shifting geopolitical power dynamics. He observed the diminishing influence of the United States, China’s sustained strategic investments and technological advancements, including cyber-enabled intellectual property theft, and Russia’s hybrid and kinetic tactics to assert its influence. Emerging powers such as India and Brazil, coupled with an uncertain European Union, introduce additional complexity, while climate change exacerbates instability through extreme weather events, population displacement, and resource scarcity.

Harris emphasized the growing significance of grayzone operations, encompassing cyberattacks, data breaches, and disinformation campaigns, aimed at undermining trust in democratic institutions, electoral systems, and public services. He cited instances such as attacks on the Polish railway network, UK air traffic control, police and electoral databases, as well as disinformation regarding COVID-19, climate change, and elections. The objective of these actions, he contended, is to sow societal division and erode faith in democracy.

To counter these threats, Harris advocated for internal respect and cohesion within democracies, prudent political leadership, and long-term public education to foster critical information literacy. He highlighted models such as Sweden’s household crisis preparedness booklets and Norway’s comprehensive defense system as examples of building civic resilience. He concluded that disregarding grayzone activity is not an option; it must be actively confronted, and timidity is not a valid response.