25th Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum – Nation State Risk and the Future Influence in Security From China, Russia And North Korea

Hon. Baroness Pauline Neville Jones commenced her address by acknowledging the unconventional timing of the mid-afternoon panel, with the objective of captivating the audience with incisive insights on cyber and geopolitical risk. She underscored that nation-states have consistently grappled with threats to their territorial integrity, institutions, and populations, citing historical instances of war, guerrilla warfare, and terrorism. In the contemporary era, she observed, a novel form of risk has emerged, characterized by covert, technological, and information-based attacks that are not intended to achieve military victory but rather to undermine state cohesion, reputation, institutional efficacy, economic stability, and citizen loyalty. State actors, organized crime syndicates, and terrorists increasingly exploit these methodologies, often employing artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies. She cautioned that optimism regarding democratization has waned, with autocracies such as Russia, China, and North Korea expanding their influence while criminal cyber activity persists. Baroness Neville Jones emphasized that democracies risk moving too slowly and cautiously, lacking coherent strategies toward Russia and China, failing to maintain deterrence, and overlooking opportunities to influence neutral actors. She underscored the significance of fortifying international institutions, pursuing constructive dialogue, and striking a balance between precaution and proactive engagement on global issues such as climate change. She concluded by introducing the panel, notably Nathan Sales, a counterterrorism and diplomacy expert.